Climate Letter #771

Posted on October 20, 2016 by Carl Campbell
How to compare the long term past and future of various climate change indicators.  This links to the abstract of a study published in a science journal last February.  The authors want to compare what is happening now with what happened over the last 20,000 years, and what the outcome will be like over the next 10,000 years, under four different emission scenarios.  I especially recommend that you open and study the links to Figures 1 and 2, which provide the most up-to-date estimates of key climate data from the past, neatly charted.  They show many things of interest, including the measure of global temperature increase being just 4C from the time of maximum glaciation up to the Holocene era that we now inhabit.  (4C can indeed produce an amazing amount of change!)  Sea level rose a total of 430 feet, by melting two-thirds of all the continental ice present at the start.  Note that the last 130 feet or so of sea level rise occurred over several thousand years after the temperature stopped rising, which was around 9500 years ago.  That is the basis of a strong message about what happens when massive glaciers become destabilized and then gradually decompose over an extended period of time.

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All about the recent agreement to cut emissions from air transportation.  Among major producers of greenhouse gas, this is one of the most difficult for finding a practical solution to emissions reduction while maintaining service.  Goals have been set that put on pressure for more action, which is a decent way to start, but it’s a long way to the finish line.
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The price of solar modules in the US has dropped 40% in just six months.  According to a Deutsche Bank report, other costs associated with full installation, which are of a greater amount, are likely to quickly follow at about that same rate of decline.  The result, beginning next year, should stimulate a major uptick in orders across all types of solar energy markets.  (Another report, from Bloomberg, sees only a flat year for this market in 2017, which will be temporary, for a variety of other reasons.)
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An impressive new way to reduce the cost of offshore wind installations.  It’s called “self-installation,” with all of the hard work on the substructure being done on shore, towed to the site and dropped in place, for “drastic” cost reductions.
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This breakthrough points to a pronounced improvement in the outlook for hydrogen power.  The people who did the work have good-looking credibility, seem quite excited, and what they say in general about the significance may thus be taken seriously.  A more detailed explanation would be helpful to public understanding.
Carl

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