Climate Letter #709

One type of climate model has become amazingly accurate.  These are models that predict the rate of heat being accumulated in the oceans, which is the most fundamental way of measuring the trend of global warming.  As well, new ways of directly measuring ocean heat content have been developed that more fully provide real data.  For the models to be accurate they must correctly assess the difference between the amount of energy regularly entering the Earth’s system from without and the amount leaving.  One of the authors of a new study being published provides pertinent discussion.

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Temperatures greater than the 1.5C limit are now unavoidable over land.  That is the conclusion of a new study.  The current energy imbalance (as also described in the previous post) assures substantial further overall warming, with temperatures over continents increasing faster than those over oceans.  This would happen even if current levels of greenhouse gases were to somehow stop growing.
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How the expected shifting of cloud formation will affect food production and water supplies in regions left behind.  Studies look for differences to become fully apparent in those areas by 2020, growing worse from then on, while other regions will gain extra rainfall.  The post contains a global map that details where both effects will be the strongest.  Parts of sub-Sahara Africa will actually have opportunities to improve crop production.
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Six human activities that need to be changed in order to protect drinking water.  They are largely intertwined with fossil fuel production processes and intensified by climate changing carbon emissions.  Switching to renewable energy would have a double-positive impact.
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The city of Vancouver is planning to be 100% decarbonized by 2050.  Here is an interview with the city manager about the challenges involved and how they can be overcome.
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Will the possibility of a carbon tax decide the US election?  Anti-tax conservatives, observing the Democratic platform, could employ it as a weapon, and the Democrats may have no other choice than to mount a strong defense.  That would require a powerful and skillful educational effort, which has so far been lacking on the scale required.  I think the only way to make the argument effective, and economically appealing to a solid majority, would be to endorse the full dividend concept that James Hansen and others have long advocated.  This would be an opportune time to give that idea the kind of maximum exposure and explanation it requires.
Carl

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