Climate Letter #691

Conditions in the Amazon rainforest are not good.  This is at least partly a result of the recent major El Nino, which caused a reduction in rainfall.  There is now a high risk forecast for an unusually intense fire season, like that which followed the El Nino of 1997-8.  A point is made that there is a connection between the warming of ocean surfaces and the drying out of connected forest lands, which may be taken as a general rule having wide applications.

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How pledges that were made in Paris fall short of meeting the stated goals.  The numbers have been updated, and the chart shows how far there is to go.  Even worse, the action policies that have actually been put in place by the various countries fall well short of enabling their pledges, which are inadequate to begin with, to be met.  At this rate the entire carbon budget for staying below 2C will be blown by 2030.
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Here are the full remarks on the above study by Dr. Joeri Rogelj, a prize-winning scholar in this field of research.  He includes some serious doubts about the potential usefulness of “negative emissions” as a fallback strategy.
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A new document from Germany gives the impression of backsliding on climate action policies.  “The original proposals met with hefty opposition from unions, coal-producing regions and business groups who said it would cost jobs and damage industry.”  This story illustrates the difficulty of pursuing policies consistent with meeting the Paris goals, even for a nation often seen as a leader in willingness to take strong action.  Too many people are not on board, and get their politicians to compromise.
In the US, the same kind of ambivalence toward climate action can be found within the Democratic party:
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The Vatican now wants Catholic schools everywhere to switch to solar energy.  This came about as the result of a successful changeover by 31 schools in Queensland, Australia.  Maybe other converts will be won from outside the church?
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Some climate science, reported in 2013.  This story should help you understand what causes (or did cause) ice ages to come and go about every 100,000 years.

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