Climate Letter #638

Some extraordinary temperature charts.  This post has several good charts that put recent heat records into context.  March alone shows a spectacular jump, but that could just be a one-month peculiarity.  The last chart in the series shows how the whole first quarter compared with others historically, and that one is frightening.  We know that El Nino contributed in a significant way, but I have not seen any explanation for how this latest El Nino could have done so much damage by itself. Something else of an unusual nature may also have contributed, and now we have to wait and see whether it was a temporary effect, like that expected of El Nino, or more of a lasting type of thing.

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Trouble is mounting in India.  This is where relatively high regional intensity expressing the recent global warmup is having an impact in an area that is densely populated.  These temperatures are already bad enough to challenge human endurance, and summer has only just begun.  One particular problem for India at this time lies in the fact that the surface water temperature of the Indian Ocean, surrounding the country on both of its coastal sides, has recently been well above normal.  This condition should eventually return to normal, but the timing of such is uncertain.
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Ray Kurzweil is optimistic about the future of solar energy.  The famous futurist believes that compounding of the rapid rate of growth that has already been established could produce total dominance in as little as twelve years.
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A practical type of study suggests that fossil fuel energy could be completely replaced in as little as a decade, if the will to do so is present.  This is not a prediction, but makes a case for what could be accomplished based on examples provided by past experiences.  He might have added examples of how an entire economy can be radically transformed in an even shorter period when war suddenly breaks out, as at the beginning of World War II.  This is a good point to keep in mind, because the adversities of climate change could start piling on so rapidly that almost everyone would suddenly come to agree that no other course of action remained as a viable hope for relief.
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What could possibly be even better than solar cells?  Materials are now being created that can produce electricity by processing infrared radiation given off by any source of heat, cheaply and efficiently.  There is some basic physics of an exceptional type involved, not readily understood by us ordinary folks, but the parties responsible appear to be credible.
Carl

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