Climate Letter #280

November 19, 2014

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Report from a senior climate scientist. He reviews a number of the basic fundamentals of CO2 activity that everyone should get familiar with. Special attention is given to the fact that adding CO2 to the atmosphere is a relatively quick and easy thing to do while getting rid of it is much more difficult. His chart going back 400,000 years is illustrative, and there are similar charts that would show the same trend for 800,000 years, covering eight full cycles of ice sheet glaciation. (I believe the spreading of ice sheets offers an extra boost to CO2 removal by temporarily burying carbon in peat and permafrost sediments, but that is no longer part of the outlook.) Note how easily CO2 was added in the last 150 years, the warming effect of which has not yet been fully realized.
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A review of global climate policy actions. The pace has clearly been stepped up, while gathering more headlines. Most eyes are on China and Australia, for quite different reasons. Note that China now has double the emissions of the U.S., which is #2, and is still growing much faster. (And then there’s India, which could yet become another China.) Australia just wants to sell more coal, to anyone who says they need it.
Here is more about Tony Abbott’s highly criticized position in Australia:
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The GOP has put itself in a box. .The anti-science denialism philosophy has gained too much strength at the top while public opinion keeps moving in the opposite direction. This only works as long as the issue is not high on the list of voter concerns, but that is likely to change. Peter Sinclair provides some interesting details.
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The U.S. energy outlook, from a leading investment manager. Jeremy Grantham has a special dislike for the fracking boom, which is viewed as a temporary and somewhat dangerous interruption of the inevitable switch to renewable energy.
For comparison, here is a summary of the world energy outlook through 2040, as seen by the IEA. The fifth point, about fossil fuel subsidies, should be noted because it reveals that a large portion of such subsidies exist in the form of low prices for consumers in a number of oil-rich countries, such as Saudi Arabia.
Carl

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