A new study explains why the goals set in Paris are nearly impossible to achieve. It is based on assumptions of projected population growth and growth of total energy demand per capita. The fossil fuel industry has the resources and infrastructure needed to fulfill that demand; replacing it entirely with renewable alternatives would require a level of effort that cannot realistically be expected within the limited period of time that is required by the Paris goal. The authors have simply taken a fairly common evaluation of the Paris accord and put some numbers to it. There is actually one logical way to break the impasse without putting controls on population growth, or achieving miraculous growth in the renewable sector, or finding a breakthrough technology to massively remove CO2 from the air, and that would be to sharply reduce the total demand for energy in the nations that are most developed. That would require an substantial alteration of lifestyles, no doubt unpopular with most folks, but it could be done in short order, much like mobilizing for war, if intentions to fix the climate got truly serious.
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Bill McKibben provides strong criticism of lenient natural gas policies. This lengthy piece is full of information and arguments that I think are clearly expressed and completely compelling. Natural gas may be much less polluting than coal, but is shown to offer little or no advantage specifically with respect to overall greenhouse gas effects. He has a lot to say about fracking and the people in politics who quietly support it.
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What coal is doing to India’s scarce water resources. One consequence is the frequent interruption of electricity supply under drought conditions, which are not uncommon. Some of the government’s ambitious plans for new coal generation are being toned down for this reason.
Along these same lines, Greenpeace has published a new research report covering the whole story of coal’s excessively high demand for water across the globe. It is extremely informative, well-illustrated, a fine piece of work.
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A cheaper way to produce hydrogen is in sight. Yesterday I found a story about progress made in the production of very acceptable cars that are fueled with hydrogen. This story indicates that researchers are closing in on a way to produce the hydrogen via a clean and cost-effective process, thereby reducing what has been a major handicap to market expansion.
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Transportation using electric power is already making real progress, especially for large vehicles with restricted range requirements. (They still need green electricity in order to save on carbon emissions.)
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A new message from James Hansen. This one is not about climate science but rather about the kind of pressures faced by scientists with regard to their use of language in published reports, which must be held to ultra-conservative standards. He believes this may affect pubic communications in a way that retards the feeling of urgency when seeking to promote the need for responsive action.
Carl