Climate Letter #601

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Why fossil fuels are likely to remain competitive, and continue to be burned.  This study was produced by three professors of energy economics, who make a case that the fossil fuel industry is gaining enough benefits from improved technology and productivity to remain competitive with renewables for a long time yet in terms of cost advantages.  The producers also happen to be favored by not being held responsible for all of the external damage their products cause.  The proposed solution is a carbon tax large enough to cover the disparity, as many others have recommended, but with little success.  Their work is useful because it buffers a common tendency to get carried away with optimism based on the tremendous cost reduction progress being made by alternatives, which by itself may not prove to be adequate for the occasion.
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Some other ways to look at this same issue.  Bill Gates is one who has stressed the need, as well as hope, for miraculous new technologies that will allow alternative energy sources to overwhelm the advantages of fossil fuels.  In this post Joe Romm counters with the claim that the current known solutions are indeed adequate but need to be accelerated because of time limitations.  Waiting for a quick-fix miracle is a wrong approach.  He doesn’t mention carbon taxes, perhaps realizing that getting them installed globally would itself be something of a miracle.
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A top economist thinks we underestimate the future economic damage likely to result from various levels of climate change.  Nicholas Stern has pursued this subject for years, perhaps more doggedly than anyone.  He is critical of models that project unreasonably low costs of dealing with the mot likely problems, which naturally are the models most readily accepted by policymakers.  Among his remarks:  “Most current models of climate-change impacts make two flawed assumptions: that people will be much wealthier in the future and that lives in the future are less important than lives now.”
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A unique research project establishes proof that ocean acidification, apart from any other factor, retards the growth of coral reefs.  This has not been done before except in laboratory tests.  There is no way to prevent future damage apart from cutting CO2 emissions.  (Warmer water temperatures are a separate factor believed to be related in both cause and effect.)
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A projection of the future market for electric vehicles, from a Bloomberg group.  One key point is that the total cost of ownership, apart from subsidies, will eventually surpass conventional cars, but not until 2022.  The main difference will come from cheaper and better batteries.  They project that one out of four cars on the road will be an EV in 2040.  Energy from oil would only be reduced by 14% from current consumption in that event—maybe not enough to meet the emission targets set in Paris.
Carl

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